Theories and Concepts
Replication Crisis
Also Known As Replicability Crisis
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The replication crisis is the ongoing methodological reckoning in psychology and other empirical sciences over widespread failures to reproduce published findings, including many influential ones, which has driven reforms such as pre-registration and open data sharing.
Facts
Disputed
Origin YearThe term entered wide use in the early 2010s; scholars date the crisis's effective beginning differently (the 2011 Bem ESP controversy and the Diederik Stapel fraud case are both cited flashpoints, ahead of the 2015 Reproducibility Project that gave it its clearest measurement). Core ClaimPublished significant findings, especially from small, underpowered or exploratory studies, often overstate true effect sizes and fail to replicate at the original rate when independently retested; psychology's own 2015 Reproducibility Project replicated only 36 percent of 97 originally significant findings, with replicated effect sizes averaging about half the original magnitude. 1 Cross-Tradition Connections
Associated With
Why this is disputed. Classic mid-century social psychology findings, including some cognitive dissonance results, are among the studies whose robustness the replication-crisis literature has re-examined.
One of the field's own examples of a widely cited effect whose original size is now disputed.
In Branch
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1. Wikipedia: Replication crisis
WikipediaLead sectionQuote, Lead section
also known as the reproducibility or replicability crisis
1. Wikipedia: Replication crisis
WikipediaKey 2015 Psychology StudyQuote, Key 2015 Psychology Study
Of 97 original studies with significant effects, 36% replicated successfully (p value below 0.05), with effect sizes averaging half the original magnitude.
1. Wikipedia: Replication crisis
WikipediaIn Branch: Quantitative Psychology, Causes section, publication biasQuote, In Branch: Quantitative Psychology, Causes section, publication bias
Publication bias—the tendency to publish only positive, significant results—creates the 'file drawer effect', where negative results remain unpublished.
Open Questions (1 open question)
How much of psychology's published literature will ultimately replicate, and which reforms actually fix the underlying incentives?
The 2015 Reproducibility Project measured a 36 percent replication rate for one sample of 97 findings, but researchers still debate how representative that sample is, how to interpret a "failed" replication, and whether reforms such as pre-registration are sufficient to change publication incentives.
What would resolve this Sustained tracking of replication rates across psychology's subfields after widespread adoption of pre-registration and open data, compared against pre-reform baselines.
Psychology (Methodology / Meta-Science)Wikipedia: Replication crisis
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